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South Africa Steel Synopsis July 2025

“AFRICA ISN’T TRADING — IT’S BLEEDING VALUE” - Christiaan Botha

Safeguard protection is granted whenever an industry is suffering from serious financial injury, caused by an increase in imports, which was because of unforeseen developments stemming out of the 1994 GATT negotiations, to which South Africa was a signatory.

Safeguard measures are enacted to ensure enough breathing room for the domestic manufacturing industry in distress to adjust and become more competitive, usually within a period of 3-6 years.

For this remedial protection to be effective, these safeguard duties need to be monitored and enforced across the board. However, as part of the Safeguard Agreement, the Safeguard Regulations creates an “Exempted Countries” list. This exemption has shown to provide a safeguard duty-free roue for imports from countries which are developing in nature and from where imports did not originate prior to the imposition of the safeguard duties.

The” circumvention” becomes a problem when the bigger importers switch their sources from imports from the traditional exporting countries like China and Russia, to smaller, developing nations, like Taiwan and Indonesia, effectively bypassing the Safeguard duties in their entirety.
Other WTO member countries would normally act quickly against these changes by removing these “developing nations” quickly once its import volume exceeds the established threshold. No further investigation is required.

In South Africa, the remedial action linked to the imposition of safeguard measures are failing because the officer in charge of this administrative action, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Minister Dave Patel, fails in his duty to authorise these exempted country removals immediately, or at all in some cases. Imports that reduced because of the imposition of the safeguard duties, with a resultant uptick in local production, regained lost ground within a year of the duties being imposed, rendering the safeguard protection completely impotent.

Below is an import chart, providing insight on how imports of Hexagon Nuts, a product protected by safeguard duties have climbed to almost pre-safeguard levels, because of a lack of action by the government to curb imports from developing nations.

Source - CD Research
Africa is still exporting the same things it exported 50 years ago. Raw commodities. No serious beneficiation. No control over downstream value. No leverage in the pricing. No insulation when global demand shifts.
When a single product makes up more than half a nation’s foreign income, that’s not a strength. That’s a chokehold.

Such dependency renders nations susceptible to market volatility, exchange rate instability, logistical disruptions, and external political influence. These vulnerabilities manifest routinely, a downturn in global pricing or obstruction in trade corridors can impede economic momentum, destabilise fiscal frameworks, and ultimately shift the burden onto the public.

South Africa exports more than 60 million tonnes of Iron ore and accounts for more than 11% of the global ferro-alloy ore trade in 2024, which includes ferro-manganese, silicon-manganese and ferro-chrome, while importing more than R2.5 bn ferro-alloys in that same year. The gap between local steel prices and the latest quoted prices is significant, however, international steel prices are starting to improve.

Poor infrastructure is limiting growth. GA moderate improvement of economic growth is expected in the next 18 months as monetary and fiscal policy opens more space.

The focus should be VALUE ADDITION. We need to enable manufacturing and fabrication and drive high-value adding as much as possible.


Contact CD Research For The Full Article
Tel: +27 83 468 1613
Tel: +27 76 716 8675
Email: charles@cdresearch.co.za
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