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South Africa Steel Synopsis August 2025

Safeguard protection is granted whenever an industry is suffering from serious financial injury, caused by an increase in imports, which was because of unforeseen developments stemming out of the 1994 GATT negotiations, to which South Africa was a signatory.

Safeguard measures are enacted to ensure enough breathing room for the domestic manufacturing industry in distress to adjust and become more competitive, usually within a period of 3-6 years.

For this remedial protection to be effective, these safeguard duties need to be monitored and enforced across the board. However, as part of the Safeguard Agreement, the Safeguard Regulations creates an “Exempted Countries” list. This exemption has shown to provide a safeguard duty-free roue for imports from countries which are developing in nature and from where imports did not originate prior to the imposition of the safeguard duties.

The” circumvention” becomes a problem when the bigger importers switch their sources from imports from the traditional exporting countries like China and Russia, to smaller, developing nations, like Taiwan and Indonesia, effectively bypassing the Safeguard duties in their entirety.
Other WTO member countries would normally act quickly against these changes by removing these “developing nations” quickly once its import volume exceeds the established threshold. No further investigation is required.

In South Africa, the remedial action linked to the imposition of safeguard measures are failing because the officer in charge of this administrative action, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Minister Dave Patel, fails in his duty to authorise these exempted country removals immediately, or at all in some cases. Imports that reduced because of the imposition of the safeguard duties, with a resultant uptick in local production, regained lost ground within a year of the duties being imposed, rendering the safeguard protection completely impotent.

Below is an import chart, providing insight on how imports of Hexagon Nuts, a product protected by safeguard duties have climbed to almost pre-safeguard levels, because of a lack of action by the government to curb imports from developing nations.

Source - CD Research
There is light at the end of the tunnel for global steel demand, though the recovery is expected to be gradual and uneven across regions and sectors.
Domestic economy is too pedestrian to compete globally Optimistic forecasts suggest up to 0.8% growth, but structural challenges remain.!
Massive infrastructure programs in the US, EU, and China are expected to increase steel consumption, particularly in the construction, transportation, and energy sectors. However, recovery depends on macroeconomic stability, geopolitical tensions, and the health of China’s real estate sector.

Here are the risks:
• China accounts for over 50% of global steel consumption
• Trade wars, especially between the US, EU, and China, are disrupting supply chains and creating uncertainty.
• Frequent changes in trade, environmental, and industrial policies create unpredictability for long-term planning.

Steel Prices:
Trade measures are widening the dual pricing gap of domestic and export realised prices; however, export prices will remain under pressure.
Global steel demand is projected to rebound by 1.2% in 2025 after three years of contraction. India is leading the recovery, with 8% growth expected over 2024–2025, driven by infrastructure and industrial expansion. Developing economies excluding China are forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2025, especially in MENA, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Developed economies like the US, Japan, and the EU are expected to see a 1.9% recovery in 2025, supported by easing financing conditions and infrastructure spending.

Contact CD Research For The Full Article
Tel: +27 83 468 1613
Tel: +27 76 716 8675
Email: charles@cdresearch.co.za
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