Safeguard protection is granted whenever an industry is suffering from serious financial injury, caused by an increase in imports, which was because of unforeseen developments stemming out of the 1994 GATT negotiations, to which South Africa was a signatory.
Safeguard measures are enacted to ensure enough breathing room for the domestic manufacturing industry in distress to adjust and become more competitive, usually within a period of 3-6 years.
For this remedial protection to be effective, these safeguard duties need to be monitored and enforced across the board. However, as part of the Safeguard Agreement, the Safeguard Regulations creates an “Exempted Countries” list. This exemption has shown to provide a safeguard duty-free roue for imports from countries which are developing in nature and from where imports did not originate prior to the imposition of the safeguard duties.
The” circumvention” becomes a problem when the bigger importers switch their sources from imports from the traditional exporting countries like China and Russia, to smaller, developing nations, like Taiwan and Indonesia, effectively bypassing the Safeguard duties in their entirety.
Other WTO member countries would normally act quickly against these changes by removing these “developing nations” quickly once its import volume exceeds the established threshold. No further investigation is required.
In South Africa, the remedial action linked to the imposition of safeguard measures are failing because the officer in charge of this administrative action, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Minister Dave Patel, fails in his duty to authorise these exempted country removals immediately, or at all in some cases. Imports that reduced because of the imposition of the safeguard duties, with a resultant uptick in local production, regained lost ground within a year of the duties being imposed, rendering the safeguard protection completely impotent.
Below is an import chart, providing insight on how imports of Hexagon Nuts, a product protected by safeguard duties have climbed to almost pre-safeguard levels, because of a lack of action by the government to curb imports from developing nations.
South Africa’s forestry industry is a sizeable leg of manufacturing in the country. It employing significant numbers across the value-chain and contributing to GDP. It forms the backbone of our furniture, construction, and paper industries.
However, much like other global industries, the forestry industry is suffering from it's own challenges. According to the recent government notice (ITAC Notice 3727 of 2026), local producers are under serious threat from a flood of imports.
At the center of the storm is PG Bison, one of South Africa’s biggest manufacturers of Medium-Density Fibreboard (MDF). On January 16, 2026, the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) published an application from the company requesting to hike the customs duty on MDF from 10% to 15% ad valorem.
The notice reveals some startling numbers:
• Chinese imports grew by 114% between 2021 and 2023.
• China now accounts for 32% of all MDF imports into South Africa.
• The pricing of these imports is reportedly "significantly lower than local production costs."
The notice explicitly mentions a "likelihood of under-declaration" which involve importers manipulating invoices to pay less duty. This allows them to sell finished goods here cheaper than what it costs a local factory to make them. Ironically, this comes at a time when the government’s own Forestry Master Plan (2020-2025) explicitly recognises the need to "enforce compliance and apply standards on imported Board products" to support local manufacturers.
The recent notice has revealed the unexpected fragility of the industry, as outlined in the Forestry Master Plan for the Commercial Forestry Sector in South Africa 2020-2025. Much like other master plans advanced by the DTIC alongside the DEFF, highlights just how foundational this sector is:
• Economic Weight: Forestry products contribute at least 4.5% to total manufacturing, ranking it among the top five manufacturing sectors.
• Rural Backbone: Much of forestry operations are rurally based, supporting an estimated 700,000 livelihoods.
• Trade Balance: In less than 10 years, export earnings almost trebled, providing a positive trade balance of close to R10 billion.
Anticipating effective industrial policy, PG Bison recently invested heavily in expanding its Mkhondo plant. With the goal of ramping up production to serve the entire Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and tap into the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for exports. That means more local jobs, less reliance on foreign supply chains, and alignment with the Master Plan’s goal to "increase investment, jobs and competitiveness."
If the duty isn't raised, those investments are at risk. When local factories struggle to compete with undervalued imports, they cut shifts. When they cut shifts, sawmills upstream lose orders. When sawmills lose orders, tree farmers let plantations go fallow. It’s a domino effect that ends with thousands of families losing their livelihoods.
The timing of this import surge is particularly concerning given the long-term challenges the industry already faces. The Forestry Master Plan identifies several critical inhibitors that are still being resolved, including:
• The Resource Crunch: The most significant constraint is the "lack of new afforestation." The plan notes that "one cannot beneficiate that which doesn't exist," and aims to establish 151,000 ha of new plantations by 2026 just to meet demand.
• Competitiveness: The plan measures success by "improved cost of production" and "logistic costs," specifically calling out challenges with Transnet (rail and ports) that make local products more expensive than they need to be.
• Illegal Timber & Crime: The Master Plan dedicates an entire focus area (Focus Area 4) to "Illegal timber and crime-related activities," acknowledging that stolen and illegally treated timber is a "growing concern."
• RDI Gaps: The plan warns that diminishing R&D funding threatens the sector's ability to fight pests (like the Leptocybe wasp, which has destroyed thousands of hectares) and improve yields.
If influxes in imports are layered on top of these existing structural problems, the Master Plan’s targets for investment (R24.9 billion) and jobs (100,549 additional positions) could be seriously jeopardised. Government needs to prioritise effective industrial policy-making now, while the sawmills are still turning.
For now, the industry waits for the axe.
- Kherina Narotam
