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South Africa Steel Synopsis May/June 2026

BETWEEN A SURPLUS GIANT AND A DEMAND
JUGGERNAUT: WHERE DOES SOUTH AFRICAN STEEL FIT?

Safeguard protection is granted whenever an industry is suffering from serious financial injury, caused by an increase in imports, which was because of unforeseen developments stemming out of the 1994 GATT negotiations, to which South Africa was a signatory.

Safeguard measures are enacted to ensure enough breathing room for the domestic manufacturing industry in distress to adjust and become more competitive, usually within a period of 3-6 years.

For this remedial protection to be effective, these safeguard duties need to be monitored and enforced across the board. However, as part of the Safeguard Agreement, the Safeguard Regulations creates an “Exempted Countries” list. This exemption has shown to provide a safeguard duty-free roue for imports from countries which are developing in nature and from where imports did not originate prior to the imposition of the safeguard duties.

The” circumvention” becomes a problem when the bigger importers switch their sources from imports from the traditional exporting countries like China and Russia, to smaller, developing nations, like Taiwan and Indonesia, effectively bypassing the Safeguard duties in their entirety.
Other WTO member countries would normally act quickly against these changes by removing these “developing nations” quickly once its import volume exceeds the established threshold. No further investigation is required.

In South Africa, the remedial action linked to the imposition of safeguard measures are failing because the officer in charge of this administrative action, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Minister Dave Patel, fails in his duty to authorise these exempted country removals immediately, or at all in some cases. Imports that reduced because of the imposition of the safeguard duties, with a resultant uptick in local production, regained lost ground within a year of the duties being imposed, rendering the safeguard protection completely impotent.

Below is an import chart, providing insight on how imports of Hexagon Nuts, a product protected by safeguard duties have climbed to almost pre-safeguard levels, because of a lack of action by the government to curb imports from developing nations.

South Africa’s steel industry is facing growing pressure from a global market increasingly shaped by two dominant players: China and India. While both rank among the world’s largest steel producers, their influence on international markets is driven by very different economic realities.

China remains the defining force in global steel trade. Its enormous production capacity, combined with weakening domestic demand, has resulted in substantial volumes of steel being redirected into export markets. This dynamic continues to reshape pricing, trade flows and competitive conditions around the world. For smaller producers such as South Africa, the impact extends far beyond simple price competition.

India presents a different challenge. Rather than relying heavily on exports, its steel sector is being supported by strong domestic demand linked to infrastructure development, manufacturing growth and industrial expansion. At the same time, India is steadily strengthening its position in value-added industries, creating a competitive model that differs significantly from China's surplus-driven approach.

For South Africa, these developments raise important strategic questions. The country cannot compete with either nation on production scale alone, yet it must find ways to preserve industrial capability, support downstream manufacturing and remain competitive in an increasingly complex global environment.

The full Steel Synopsis by Charles Dednam examines why China and India should not be viewed through the same policy lens, how their differing trajectories are reshaping global steel markets, and what these shifts could mean for the future of South Africa’s steel industry and broader industrial strategy.

Contact CD Research for the Full Article:

Tel: +27 83 468 1613
Tel: +27 76 716 8675
Email: charles@cdresearch.co.za
Web: cdresearch.co.za

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