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South Africa Steel Market Synopsis June/July 2026

INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2026: WILL IT
MEANINGFULLY REDUCE PRESSURE ON THE STEEL
VALUE CHAIN?

Safeguard protection is granted whenever an industry is suffering from serious financial injury, caused by an increase in imports, which was because of unforeseen developments stemming out of the 1994 GATT negotiations, to which South Africa was a signatory.

Safeguard measures are enacted to ensure enough breathing room for the domestic manufacturing industry in distress to adjust and become more competitive, usually within a period of 3-6 years.

For this remedial protection to be effective, these safeguard duties need to be monitored and enforced across the board. However, as part of the Safeguard Agreement, the Safeguard Regulations creates an “Exempted Countries” list. This exemption has shown to provide a safeguard duty-free roue for imports from countries which are developing in nature and from where imports did not originate prior to the imposition of the safeguard duties.

The” circumvention” becomes a problem when the bigger importers switch their sources from imports from the traditional exporting countries like China and Russia, to smaller, developing nations, like Taiwan and Indonesia, effectively bypassing the Safeguard duties in their entirety.
Other WTO member countries would normally act quickly against these changes by removing these “developing nations” quickly once its import volume exceeds the established threshold. No further investigation is required.

In South Africa, the remedial action linked to the imposition of safeguard measures are failing because the officer in charge of this administrative action, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Minister Dave Patel, fails in his duty to authorise these exempted country removals immediately, or at all in some cases. Imports that reduced because of the imposition of the safeguard duties, with a resultant uptick in local production, regained lost ground within a year of the duties being imposed, rendering the safeguard protection completely impotent.

Below is an import chart, providing insight on how imports of Hexagon Nuts, a product protected by safeguard duties have climbed to almost pre-safeguard levels, because of a lack of action by the government to curb imports from developing nations.

South Africa’s newly released Industrial Development Strategy 2026 sets out an ambitious vision to reshape the country’s industrial future. Built around the pillars of decarbonisation, diversification and digitalisation, the strategy aims to strengthen manufacturing, attract investment and create more inclusive economic growth through a more coordinated approach to industrial policy.

For the steel sector, the strategy signals a renewed focus on localisation, upgrading domestic production and improving long-term competitiveness. It also proposes a combination of trade measures, technology investment and demand-side support designed to help stabilise and revitalise the steel value chain in an increasingly competitive global market.

While the strategy outlines clear priorities and ambitious targets, its success will ultimately depend on effective implementation, coordination across government, and meaningful collaboration with industry. The gap between policy intent and practical delivery remains one of the key questions facing South Africa's industrial future.

The full synopsis by Charles Dednam explores what the Industrial Development Strategy 2026 could mean for South Africa's steel industry, where the greatest opportunities and challenges lie, and whether the proposed measures are sufficient to rebuild long-term industrial competitiveness.

Contact CD Research for the Full Article:

Tel: +27 83 468 1613
Tel: +27 76 716 8675
Email: charles@cdresearch.co.za
Web: cdresearch.co.za

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